Partners Doug Yatter, Yvette Valdez, and Iris Xie and associates Adam Fovent, Mia Stefanou, and John Federico examine the rapidly evolving enforcement landscape for prediction markets.
The recent growth of prediction markets in the U.S. and around the world has been
staggering. While these were smaller markets in 2024, annualized trading volume
expanded nearly 200-fold last year, from roughly $300 million in 2024 to an estimated
$40 billion to $50 billion in 2025, with leading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket
accounting for the majority of this volume.[1]
Instruments traded in these markets — event contracts — have proliferated across the
worlds of sports, entertainment, politics and world affairs, financial markets, and beyond.
This rapid growth has brought heightened regulatory attention, including a recent stream
of initiatives that will shape the future of prediction markets.[2]
